Buyers Beware, Don't Choose Sturridge

How much would you pay for a striker who scored 17 PL goals (55 games) in three and a half seasons and 5 goals in his last 29 games? £5 million? £10 million?

What if I told you that he'd command high wages (£120,000/week), provide little defensive cover and had an injury history similar to Evil Knievel? These are the questions Premier League (PL) teams like West Brom, Southampton and Stoke are posing to themselves as they fight relegation. So, is Daniel Sturridge worth the gamble?

Many would say he's a proven striker who has scored 64 goals in 133 games (49/98 in the PL) for Liverpool and has 26 caps for England. However, they'd be wrong. The last time Sturridge was a valuable striker there were only six Star Wars movies. It is clear he is in decline and no longer even worth a gamble from teams in the bottom half of the PL.

Lost His Midas Touch

In 2016, legendary Liverpool forward Ian Rush said, “For me I think it would be wrong if Liverpool got rid of him because for me he’s a great finisher.” This reputation for being a poacher and tremendous finisher has followed him his whole career. And yet, in the last four seasons since his standout 2013/14 season, Sturridge's xG rate of 17.15 is higher than his goals, 17 per Understat. His teammate, Roberto Firmino, who is considered a worse finisher by most Liverpool fans has outperformed his xG, 30 to 23.8. Another stat illustrates his ineffective finishing. His 17 goals have come from 147 shots (11.4%), which is hardly a poacher's finishing rate. For comparison, Southampton's Charlie Austin has scored 31 from 203 shots (15.2%) and Michail Antonio who isn't even a striker has scored 18 of 157 (11.46%). In fact, Sturridge hasn't scored outside the penalty area since the 13/14 season.

This poor finishing in part stems from his lack of speed and inability to get in better positions like behind the defense. His decline in speed has been noticeable and the numbers Sky Sports showed last year perfectly illustrate this. Said Carragher on Sky Sports a year go, "The whole point of Liverpool buying Sturridge under Brendan Rodgers when I was at the club was that he gave us penetration in behind, he had pace." His lack of speed means he also can't create separation from defenders whether it be making a run into the box or with the ball at his feet trying to create room for a shot.

Availability is an Ability

As a knowledgeable fan you will know that his declining speed is down to his remarkable injury history which is longer than a 5 year-old's Christmas wish-list.

At this point there are few joints and muscles below the waist that haven't been injured repeatedly. The previous graphic doesn't even show the small day-to-day muscle injuries that keep him out of games and practices here and there. In fact as I write this, he's missed the last 8 games to muscle problems and illness.

What fans sometimes forget is that availability is an ability. Being available is valuable, even if it is only for five months. Sturridge hasn't made more than 20 PL appearances since 2013/14 (12 in 2014/15 & 14 in 2015/16). If any team signs Sturridge, even on loan, he looks to feature in the best case scenario 11 of the remaining 16 games.

At this point, Sturridge is at best an impact substitute as he's made over half of his appearances (17/29) in the last two seasons from that position (his average appearance is only 41 minutes). His rate of 1 goal every 127 minutes as a sub is much better than 1 goal every 179 minutes as a starter. This may be due game situation and to small sample size but with Sturridge that will always be the case. His goals per 90 minutes, 0.38, have fallen drastically from 2015/16 and now rank as league average. If he signs with a new team and even plays in 11 games with similar minutes to Liverpool, he projects to score just two goals based on his per minute averages of the last two seasons. However, he will not have the service from his teammates that he had with Liverpool which may further diminish his returns.

What's also troubling is he isn't great at creating goal scoring opportunities for teammates. If you combine his last 3.5 seasons, he has a combined xA of 4.52 (xAssists=The sum of Expected Goals off shots from a players passes) in 2,913 minutes. For context, Joe Allen's 2016/17 season produced an xA of 4.65 in 2942 minutes. It's not bad but it's not a number to boast about. This graph (Instert below) shows he's league average in this regard.

Adios Russia

So far he's put up two goals and one assist this season and hasn't been great since playing with Luis Suarez 4 years ago. According to the Daily Mirror, before Christmas Sturridge revealed he wanted a move away from Liverpool so he can play in the World Cup. This is lunacy.

The following English players have scored more goals in the 4 years than Daniel Sturridge: Harry Kane, Dele Alli, Joshua King, Jermaine Defoe, Jamie Vardy, Theo Walcott, Troy Deeney, Michail Antonio, Raheem Sterling, Charlie Austin, Andy Carroll, Wayne Rooney, and Peter Crouch. Yes, EVEN PETER CROUCH. His Russia prospects look unlikely at best. (Side note: It's actually quiet impressive that he has 26 caps for England when his second highest PL goal total is 11 and that was in 2011/12)

Regardless, if you are a team like Stoke, you are wasting time with Sturridge. Two goals and one assist is what you can expect from him. Three if you're lucky and he plays like 2015 and not 2016. We all want to watch the Sturridge of 2013/14, but he's not here anymore. It's time we acknowledge what we all know to be true and what the evidence supports, Sturridge is a one-season wonder.